Trading review

Hi there, how are you? I am still trading, and working hard in this arena, but was not posting for a while in a blog. So I want to share some topics with you about how things is going for me.

Improved trading station
I got a new PC and another 24" LED monitor. So I have two screens each with 1920x1200 resolution.  One screen is for ladders and other for charts and betfair video. It allows me very quickly to pick charts what I want to trade and to see what is happening in whole market in just one glance. I think some  pictures will do better than lots of words :)

Trading "corner"

Still, I need better internet connection and maybe one more screen for better video stream from ATR and RUK . Maybe in the future I will get them too.

Changing trading style
At the time I am changing my trading style from scalping to swinging (except very liquid races), because I think markets are getting more competitive, it gets very frustrating then markets start to play with you chase game while scalping, you must chase it to get your money matched for your entry and it is running away then you try to exit (bigger odds), of course in liquid markets it's not like this, but then you come at 7th minute and see only ~60k total matched probably you are looking for a trouble if you want to put your money for a quick scalp there. At the time I am trying to step out to a larger scale, I mean putting money earlier and waiting for bigger movements longer with bigger stop loss. Probably I got influenced to change trading style by a book what I am reading ,  "The Art & Science of Technical Analysis" by Adam Grimes.
In the beginning it was very hard  psychologically, I wanted to be clicking a lot more in the ladders, and surviving pullbacks was a nightmare, lots of times I would predict swings, but no guts to be in them or I just exit too early, or I find places to make big losses somewhere else than my edges tells me to be and of course missing places where I should be. But with time it is getting easier, and I am improving this "waiting in the right place" and "clicking less in places with low profitability/probability". 

Books and financial markets

Still reading trading related books, at the time I am waiting to be shipped for me "The Complete TurtleTrader: The Legend, the Lessons, the Results" and "The New Market Wizards" . My trading library is getting bigger :) I believe I got lots from books about trading what I have and I am sure I will be looking for more in the future.

Well, I am preparing myself not only for always changing and improving betfair pre race horse racing markets but for financial markets too, at the time I try to split my work week to 3 days for betfair and 3 days for learning tech analysis charting for financial markets. However there is always "something" in life and it's hard to stay  with a schedule all the time. Tons of work waits me before I start to put real money on forex trading again, I need to make better preparation and it's very hard then there is another trading arena which requires big amounts of inside resources and time. But I believe I will make huge progress before next summer.

Power of clear goals
Last spring I made a goal "I should make 150eu daily this summer at least for one month". And it came true :)  I made two months better than 150eu average daily, which was my dream from the start of my bf trading carrier. However earnings dropped dramatically in August. But it remembers me that having a clear well defined goals makes magic. My "big" next goals for horses will be set only next spring, because I think it's not a good idea to setup them right now then things is coming slower in the winter. My goals for forex trading is not killers either yet too : "define exactly your edges on the paper", "make research with your edges (make sure you do have an edge at all)", "read all the books what I have", "start to trade demo, and if it will be successful start to do trade real money slowly."

Psychology and top performance
I still need more consistency, because I had some very bad weeks, however not a single loosing month since February. At these harsh times it seems I forget how to trade, and markets seems very unreadable, but I believe there are problems inside me rather than in the markets. I think my trading performance drops dramatically then I am not feeling good physically, or I am tired, or I am in the bad mood, or have other not so big frustrating life issues. In short then I am not in my top performance, my PL sucks... and it sucks big! Here are an example of two trading weeks in August, where one week suffers from "not top performance"

 I like to compare this with other high performance things. Like driving a sport car in a race. Can you expect to finish in the first place when you are disturbed, or not concentrated, or ill, or frustrated, or tired? I think no ...

Big loss from a thin air! These losses drives me crazy...
Was trading IRE racing market, entered pre race in the back side on the horse about 30 odd, exited most of the stake before off, and remaining in the inplay abut 30s from the start.  Made few bucks. Closed position and made sure there is no stakes left in the ladder and everything is green like always. After 10 minutes I noticed that I am missing 300eu ! My pl shows that -300 too. So happened this :

Please note that there was a late non-runner in this race and as such any bets that were matched before the off of the race and before the non-runner was announced will have a reduction factor applied to the bet. Any bets that are matched after the off of the race do not have the reduction factor applied to them as the price reflects what is happening within the market and the race. These bets have been settled correctly on the account and unfortunately this has resulted in a loss on the bets you have placed.

That sucks! I hate this. So my entry was reduced by ~35% reduction factor and my exit was not, and that small remainder from a lay side on the horse ~30 odd won...  I even did not know about non runner in this race!

It happened for me like this not a first time then bf takes money for me not fair. Imagine this, entry: back bet, exit: very late lay bet, and that one for some reason I don't know was voided lay bet :) so I lost about ~150.

Or this one: was clicking on a ladder and made too much multiple clicks and my account went to MINUS somehow, so I was sitting there with about -20 euros in my balance before 1m left to the start and without possibility to exit my ~200euros back bet, and of course I lost it... Bf said its very rare event, but these kind of shit happens.


Conclusion
By the way, there is my PL in August and September, still it looks like going in the right direction, hovewer variance is too big and I need to work on that.

So that's it for today, good luck!

Getting closer to consistency

"Boom and bust cycle"
Hi there, sorry for not posting for a while, however I had lot to write here. But I resisted to do that, I believe I have found my behavior pattern related to my inconsistent trading results. It stuck to me, while reading again (~3rd time?) "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas, that I was in the "boom and bust cycle" for very long time, and I believe right now that I am breaking out from that behavior. What I have noticed is the relation with this cycle and my posting in this blog :)  Positive post -> Negative post -> Positive results -> Negative results -> Boom -> Bust ... So writing a positive post would had mean that I am getting overconfident and preparing for bust cycle.

Some quotes from "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas about this

"The largest group, the remaining 40 to 50 percent of the active traders, are the "boom and busters." They have learned how to make money, but they haven't learned there's a whole body of trading skills that have to be mastered in order to keep the money they make. As a results, their equity curves look like roller-coaster rides with a nice, steady assent  into a steep drop off, then another nice, steady assent into another steep drop off...
... As your confidence grows, the more likely that at some point you will cross the threshold into euphoria and start the cycle all over again."

In short the cure is to take full responsibility and accept the risk, at last I am willing to do that. Who did not read this book, I highly recommend it.

Growing my account
I was never growing my account bigger, because I always lost it all when I was trying. At the time I am growing it successfully. However I can see getting resistance every time then I reach certain amount, after new highs I get pullbacks, but I don't give up and grow it again, I am trying to keep on myself  pressure all the time, somewhere read/heard that the only way to learn/do something uncomfortable is bravely force yourself to do it.
Whole last year I had only 100-200 in my account. At the time it's 700, and I am willing to grow it to 1k in this month. Bigger account does not mean bigger stakes and profits, it also means smaller losses and smaller gains compared with your account size, which adds more consistency in our minds. It's a big difference to loose/win 20% and 2% of your account in one certain trade. Read this somewhere in the books, and got a remainder in this nice blog "http://tradingaprofit.blogspot.com/".

April, May and 1/2 June results
Results seems more consistent, and I am very happy of that. Still not making big amounts, but most importantly they start to look CONSISTENT! Bigger numbers will come in time, no rush, no hurry...

Well, I had few extremely profitable days, and one evening is shockingly good, somebody was giving free money! New PL record is +703.03 EU

However my average profits is 10 times lower, and my dream/goal is to reach 150 on average daily. Maybe I will make it this summer at least for one month?
Ok, it's enough bragging, cause will get another "boom and bust cycle" ...

What's next?
I can assure you that I will be trading pre race bf horses this summer for sure. I will try hard to improve  my trading.
At the time I almost finishing reading great book "Market wizards" by Jack D. Schwager . Great one! I highly recommend this book.
After this one I have another 4 big tomes about price action for serious traders to read :) Gonna read a lot this summer! I plan to start trading Forex again in the Autumn, but first I am gonna make better preparation.

That's it folks, good luck in your trading.

I love trading

Today I blow up again... "ajsndfasfbahsbfzxjjsdnfjsdnf;ks\jdf" - angry bastard I am. So much bad feelings in me... It hurts, it hurts a lot. Not for "how much", it hurts because I promised myself to not do that again in the past, but I did that again - "Happy ending -> INPLAY"-  in the doing time I recognized that I am doing this, but I could not resist... I knew I am doing bad thing(someday in the past it rescued me!), but it was more powerful emotion than my conscious mind, I wanted to get it back!... It was more powerful than >2 years screen time, knowledge, reading, experience and all efforts and all dreams? It seems I am trying to convince someone.... I STILL CAN'T GIVE UP and let go and be humble and I must fight till the end...
So I am down from 300 to 100 eu balance from this emotional break out. This balance I was building 13 days from 50, and today I fucked up everything. Well, I will survive... I found strength to leave that one hundred :) I believe I am getting better in technical side and my emotional side will catch up "maybe" ... I NEVER THOUGHT THAT TRADING IS SO HARD before I started doing it, I always thought I am very very smart and I am very good at mind games. Well, it's another surprise after few trading years that emotional intellect is more important in this battle arena...
I changed trading strategies/styles. At this time I traded ONLY favs with "price action patterns", but it was very emotional, so unnatural, harsh, STILL very promising... so hard to change old behavior patterns from scalping >10 odds.
Well, enough talk, good night, today is good lesson for me, and I hope still someone finished to read this post from a guy after 5 pints of beer in the night... :D

Please watch it reverse...

"IN TIMES OF ADVERSITY, TELL  YOURSELF THAT YOU CAN DO IT. GREAT TRADERS ARE NOT BORN AND THEY ARE NOT CREATED, EITHER. THEY CREATE THEMSELVES" - Bob Volman, Forex price action scalping

February and March review

Hi,
Well I must confess that I left forex trading for a while. It seems I am not so good how I thought I was in reading price action. With trending market conditions it seems okey, but when it comes dealing with ranges or trending ranges I am failing to make consistent profits. Maybe I  forgot some content from price action trading books and got "little" emotional after loss streak, or maybe I got tired from "not making money" with pressure to make xxx for a living, maybe that drowdawn is caused by my health problems... In short - objective, patient, calm mindset is gone away again - it's worst thing in my trader's life, it's like trading depression. So after January consistent profits I got February consistent loss(both months left me with small total loss), and I decided to put forex trading to the side for some time, until I manage to make some consistent income from bf horses to save for a living and until strong inside motivation to trade forex will come back. Some shitty market reads ...

It still remembers me how inconsistent I am. Sometimes it's funny then I can notice periods of "how good I am in reading markets, how clearly I can see what is happening and making calm objective decisions and  consistent profits" and true opposite "can't see nothing and getting emotional".  I believe these mindset's shifts makes all the difference of being winner or loser. I am sure that time will come when I will dive again to the full time trading/learning forex markets :) But first let's make some consistent results in trading bf horses, here is last Chelt week's PL - with a new record per one market +84.18. I wish that Cheltenham festival lasts whole year ...

Total profit is not huge, but most importantly results was consistent and I am very happy of that. Summer is coming closer and closer, stagnation from a winter time is going away and I believe I will manage to make some nice green. After these green days/weeks/months I am gonna start to look back to part time forex trading too. Maybe 3 days forex and 3 days bf horses in a week.

Few more things to say - I am getting fat! I got more 10kg on my ass and belly after I quit smoking 3 months before, but I am very happy and proud that I did it! In summer time weight will get down for sure. When things is not going so good, I always remember myself  "at least you stopped smoking" :) One more thing to say that next week I will have my nose surgery at last, and I am expecting that chronic sinusitis/infection will leave me for all time. I have hypothesis that my health problems causes my trading inconsistent periods... when you don't feel healthy how can you hope to achieve something? Particularly in so competitive trading arenas.


That's it, have a nice and green day.

Review of my trading and plans for the next year

Hello everybody, how are you today? Was not posting for a while, I think today is a best time to update my trading journal. 2011 is over and I can proudly say that I succeeded in "not failing" with trading :) In my first pessimistic post of this blog I gave to myself one more year to do everything what I need to do to become a winner, and I did it. So my trading journey continues and becomes even more interesting then I start to understand more and more about what I am doing and what need to be done :) I had very nice consistent and profitable months, however there still was inconsistent and hard periods, but somehow I survived them. After each inconsistent and stressful period then I felt I found a way to stand up, to clean the dusts, and I believe I became stronger.

At this time I am in the crossroad, betfair horses or forex? I can't do it both full time... I must choose one and try to be best trader what I can be in one trading arena. Any mixing becomes distractions and I will get worse results than I would be trading just one arena... I made huge progress with forex scalping. I started to trade eur/usd with real money account in this month, and most importantly it seems profitable and understandable, less stressful and cleaner. I think I will leave pre race horses for a while. I am not saying I am quitting it for all time, but I need some time period to trade forex alone, and see results. If they meet my expectations and plans, probably there will not be any need to look back in the betfair trading. Time will show :)

At the moment I am fully immersed learning "price action". In financial markets and pre race horse markets I find lots of similarities with price action, it seems these rules/patterns works fine for collective market behavior and remains the same like in any other market, for example I can see these things/patterns happening: extreme test in a trend, failed breakouts, double tops/bottoms, head and shoulders, trending highs/lows, pulbacks, bull/bear flags, etc, etc ... Actually every trader who have no any idea about horse form is trading price action, they just do not have these names for patterns, and doing it more instinctively/subconsciously, than making conscious reasoning. However in the horses things happens extremely fast and lots of the time things are somehow more confusing, spoof money there, spoof money here, real money there, very big real money here, but I am too late, this one can't go down, unless fav reverses ...I believe I would be better trader only with one ladder and one price chart, doing more swing trades, however it's hard to change trading habits, and sincerely I don't see any need to change them, if I could profitable read price action in the horses, so I can do that in the forex too, what I am doing and it seems not bad at all. So it's easier to say bey bey for the pre race horses and concentrate to the more perspective trading arena where is no any "PREMIUM CHARGES" and any limits with getting matched your stakes :)

Few more things to say, I smoked my last cigarette in the December 7, at the moment it seems that any intention to have one more cigarette has gone for ever! In this week I ordered some books for further price action/trading education, hardcore three volume reading by Al Brooks "Trading Price Action Trends, Reversals, Trading Ranges" totaling 1647pages... and another one "Forex Price Action Scalping: an in-depth look into the field of professional scalping" by Bob Volman. I think I will have what to read the whole year :)

For the end of this long post some random pictures for you, what I traded real money with one pip value of 1.5EU.

That's it folks, good luck