Friday, October 5, 2012

Trading review

Hi there, how are you? I am still trading, and working hard in this arena, but was not posting for a while in a blog. So I want to share some topics with you about how things is going for me.

Improved trading station
I got a new PC and another 24" LED monitor. So I have two screens each with 1920x1200 resolution.  One screen is for ladders and other for charts and betfair video. It allows me very quickly to pick charts what I want to trade and to see what is happening in whole market in just one glance. I think some  pictures will do better than lots of words :)

Trading "corner"

Still, I need better internet connection and maybe one more screen for better video stream from ATR and RUK . Maybe in the future I will get them too.

Changing trading style
At the time I am changing my trading style from scalping to swinging (except very liquid races), because I think markets are getting more competitive, it gets very frustrating then markets start to play with you chase game while scalping, you must chase it to get your money matched for your entry and it is running away then you try to exit (bigger odds), of course in liquid markets it's not like this, but then you come at 7th minute and see only ~60k total matched probably you are looking for a trouble if you want to put your money for a quick scalp there. At the time I am trying to step out to a larger scale, I mean putting money earlier and waiting for bigger movements longer with bigger stop loss. Probably I got influenced to change trading style by a book what I am reading ,  "The Art & Science of Technical Analysis" by Adam Grimes.
In the beginning it was very hard  psychologically, I wanted to be clicking a lot more in the ladders, and surviving pullbacks was a nightmare, lots of times I would predict swings, but no guts to be in them or I just exit too early, or I find places to make big losses somewhere else than my edges tells me to be and of course missing places where I should be. But with time it is getting easier, and I am improving this "waiting in the right place" and "clicking less in places with low profitability/probability". 

Books and financial markets

Still reading trading related books, at the time I am waiting to be shipped for me "The Complete TurtleTrader: The Legend, the Lessons, the Results" and "The New Market Wizards" . My trading library is getting bigger :) I believe I got lots from books about trading what I have and I am sure I will be looking for more in the future.

Well, I am preparing myself not only for always changing and improving betfair pre race horse racing markets but for financial markets too, at the time I try to split my work week to 3 days for betfair and 3 days for learning tech analysis charting for financial markets. However there is always "something" in life and it's hard to stay  with a schedule all the time. Tons of work waits me before I start to put real money on forex trading again, I need to make better preparation and it's very hard then there is another trading arena which requires big amounts of inside resources and time. But I believe I will make huge progress before next summer.

Power of clear goals
Last spring I made a goal "I should make 150eu daily this summer at least for one month". And it came true :)  I made two months better than 150eu average daily, which was my dream from the start of my bf trading carrier. However earnings dropped dramatically in August. But it remembers me that having a clear well defined goals makes magic. My "big" next goals for horses will be set only next spring, because I think it's not a good idea to setup them right now then things is coming slower in the winter. My goals for forex trading is not killers either yet too : "define exactly your edges on the paper", "make research with your edges (make sure you do have an edge at all)", "read all the books what I have", "start to trade demo, and if it will be successful start to do trade real money slowly."

Psychology and top performance
I still need more consistency, because I had some very bad weeks, however not a single loosing month since February. At these harsh times it seems I forget how to trade, and markets seems very unreadable, but I believe there are problems inside me rather than in the markets. I think my trading performance drops dramatically then I am not feeling good physically, or I am tired, or I am in the bad mood, or have other not so big frustrating life issues. In short then I am not in my top performance, my PL sucks... and it sucks big! Here are an example of two trading weeks in August, where one week suffers from "not top performance"

 I like to compare this with other high performance things. Like driving a sport car in a race. Can you expect to finish in the first place when you are disturbed, or not concentrated, or ill, or frustrated, or tired? I think no ...

Big loss from a thin air! These losses drives me crazy...
Was trading IRE racing market, entered pre race in the back side on the horse about 30 odd, exited most of the stake before off, and remaining in the inplay abut 30s from the start.  Made few bucks. Closed position and made sure there is no stakes left in the ladder and everything is green like always. After 10 minutes I noticed that I am missing 300eu ! My pl shows that -300 too. So happened this :

Please note that there was a late non-runner in this race and as such any bets that were matched before the off of the race and before the non-runner was announced will have a reduction factor applied to the bet. Any bets that are matched after the off of the race do not have the reduction factor applied to them as the price reflects what is happening within the market and the race. These bets have been settled correctly on the account and unfortunately this has resulted in a loss on the bets you have placed.

That sucks! I hate this. So my entry was reduced by ~35% reduction factor and my exit was not, and that small remainder from a lay side on the horse ~30 odd won...  I even did not know about non runner in this race!

It happened for me like this not a first time then bf takes money for me not fair. Imagine this, entry: back bet, exit: very late lay bet, and that one for some reason I don't know was voided lay bet :) so I lost about ~150.

Or this one: was clicking on a ladder and made too much multiple clicks and my account went to MINUS somehow, so I was sitting there with about -20 euros in my balance before 1m left to the start and without possibility to exit my ~200euros back bet, and of course I lost it... Bf said its very rare event, but these kind of shit happens.

By the way, there is my PL in August and September, still it looks like going in the right direction, hovewer variance is too big and I need to work on that.

So that's it for today, good luck!

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Getting closer to consistency

"Boom and bust cycle"
Hi there, sorry for not posting for a while, however I had lot to write here. But I resisted to do that, I believe I have found my behavior pattern related to my inconsistent trading results. It stuck to me, while reading again (~3rd time?) "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas, that I was in the "boom and bust cycle" for very long time, and I believe right now that I am breaking out from that behavior. What I have noticed is the relation with this cycle and my posting in this blog :)  Positive post -> Negative post -> Positive results -> Negative results -> Boom -> Bust ... So writing a positive post would had mean that I am getting overconfident and preparing for bust cycle.

Some quotes from "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas about this

"The largest group, the remaining 40 to 50 percent of the active traders, are the "boom and busters." They have learned how to make money, but they haven't learned there's a whole body of trading skills that have to be mastered in order to keep the money they make. As a results, their equity curves look like roller-coaster rides with a nice, steady assent  into a steep drop off, then another nice, steady assent into another steep drop off...
... As your confidence grows, the more likely that at some point you will cross the threshold into euphoria and start the cycle all over again."

In short the cure is to take full responsibility and accept the risk, at last I am willing to do that. Who did not read this book, I highly recommend it.

Growing my account
I was never growing my account bigger, because I always lost it all when I was trying. At the time I am growing it successfully. However I can see getting resistance every time then I reach certain amount, after new highs I get pullbacks, but I don't give up and grow it again, I am trying to keep on myself  pressure all the time, somewhere read/heard that the only way to learn/do something uncomfortable is bravely force yourself to do it.
Whole last year I had only 100-200 in my account. At the time it's 700, and I am willing to grow it to 1k in this month. Bigger account does not mean bigger stakes and profits, it also means smaller losses and smaller gains compared with your account size, which adds more consistency in our minds. It's a big difference to loose/win 20% and 2% of your account in one certain trade. Read this somewhere in the books, and got a remainder in this nice blog "".

April, May and 1/2 June results
Results seems more consistent, and I am very happy of that. Still not making big amounts, but most importantly they start to look CONSISTENT! Bigger numbers will come in time, no rush, no hurry...

Well, I had few extremely profitable days, and one evening is shockingly good, somebody was giving free money! New PL record is +703.03 EU

However my average profits is 10 times lower, and my dream/goal is to reach 150 on average daily. Maybe I will make it this summer at least for one month?
Ok, it's enough bragging, cause will get another "boom and bust cycle" ...

What's next?
I can assure you that I will be trading pre race bf horses this summer for sure. I will try hard to improve  my trading.
At the time I almost finishing reading great book "Market wizards" by Jack D. Schwager . Great one! I highly recommend this book.
After this one I have another 4 big tomes about price action for serious traders to read :) Gonna read a lot this summer! I plan to start trading Forex again in the Autumn, but first I am gonna make better preparation.

That's it folks, good luck in your trading.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

I love trading

Today I blow up again... "ajsndfasfbahsbfzxjjsdnfjsdnf;ks\jdf" - angry bastard I am. So much bad feelings in me... It hurts, it hurts a lot. Not for "how much", it hurts because I promised myself to not do that again in the past, but I did that again - "Happy ending -> INPLAY"-  in the doing time I recognized that I am doing this, but I could not resist... I knew I am doing bad thing(someday in the past it rescued me!), but it was more powerful emotion than my conscious mind, I wanted to get it back!... It was more powerful than >2 years screen time, knowledge, reading, experience and all efforts and all dreams? It seems I am trying to convince someone.... I STILL CAN'T GIVE UP and let go and be humble and I must fight till the end...
So I am down from 300 to 100 eu balance from this emotional break out. This balance I was building 13 days from 50, and today I fucked up everything. Well, I will survive... I found strength to leave that one hundred :) I believe I am getting better in technical side and my emotional side will catch up "maybe" ... I NEVER THOUGHT THAT TRADING IS SO HARD before I started doing it, I always thought I am very very smart and I am very good at mind games. Well, it's another surprise after few trading years that emotional intellect is more important in this battle arena...
I changed trading strategies/styles. At this time I traded ONLY favs with "price action patterns", but it was very emotional, so unnatural, harsh, STILL very promising... so hard to change old behavior patterns from scalping >10 odds.
Well, enough talk, good night, today is good lesson for me, and I hope still someone finished to read this post from a guy after 5 pints of beer in the night... :D
Please watch it reverse...