Friday, October 5, 2012

Trading review

Hi there, how are you? I am still trading, and working hard in this arena, but was not posting for a while in a blog. So I want to share some topics with you about how things is going for me.

Improved trading station
I got a new PC and another 24" LED monitor. So I have two screens each with 1920x1200 resolution.  One screen is for ladders and other for charts and betfair video. It allows me very quickly to pick charts what I want to trade and to see what is happening in whole market in just one glance. I think some  pictures will do better than lots of words :)

Trading "corner"

Still, I need better internet connection and maybe one more screen for better video stream from ATR and RUK . Maybe in the future I will get them too.

Changing trading style
At the time I am changing my trading style from scalping to swinging (except very liquid races), because I think markets are getting more competitive, it gets very frustrating then markets start to play with you chase game while scalping, you must chase it to get your money matched for your entry and it is running away then you try to exit (bigger odds), of course in liquid markets it's not like this, but then you come at 7th minute and see only ~60k total matched probably you are looking for a trouble if you want to put your money for a quick scalp there. At the time I am trying to step out to a larger scale, I mean putting money earlier and waiting for bigger movements longer with bigger stop loss. Probably I got influenced to change trading style by a book what I am reading ,  "The Art & Science of Technical Analysis" by Adam Grimes.
In the beginning it was very hard  psychologically, I wanted to be clicking a lot more in the ladders, and surviving pullbacks was a nightmare, lots of times I would predict swings, but no guts to be in them or I just exit too early, or I find places to make big losses somewhere else than my edges tells me to be and of course missing places where I should be. But with time it is getting easier, and I am improving this "waiting in the right place" and "clicking less in places with low profitability/probability". 

Books and financial markets

Still reading trading related books, at the time I am waiting to be shipped for me "The Complete TurtleTrader: The Legend, the Lessons, the Results" and "The New Market Wizards" . My trading library is getting bigger :) I believe I got lots from books about trading what I have and I am sure I will be looking for more in the future.

Well, I am preparing myself not only for always changing and improving betfair pre race horse racing markets but for financial markets too, at the time I try to split my work week to 3 days for betfair and 3 days for learning tech analysis charting for financial markets. However there is always "something" in life and it's hard to stay  with a schedule all the time. Tons of work waits me before I start to put real money on forex trading again, I need to make better preparation and it's very hard then there is another trading arena which requires big amounts of inside resources and time. But I believe I will make huge progress before next summer.

Power of clear goals
Last spring I made a goal "I should make 150eu daily this summer at least for one month". And it came true :)  I made two months better than 150eu average daily, which was my dream from the start of my bf trading carrier. However earnings dropped dramatically in August. But it remembers me that having a clear well defined goals makes magic. My "big" next goals for horses will be set only next spring, because I think it's not a good idea to setup them right now then things is coming slower in the winter. My goals for forex trading is not killers either yet too : "define exactly your edges on the paper", "make research with your edges (make sure you do have an edge at all)", "read all the books what I have", "start to trade demo, and if it will be successful start to do trade real money slowly."

Psychology and top performance
I still need more consistency, because I had some very bad weeks, however not a single loosing month since February. At these harsh times it seems I forget how to trade, and markets seems very unreadable, but I believe there are problems inside me rather than in the markets. I think my trading performance drops dramatically then I am not feeling good physically, or I am tired, or I am in the bad mood, or have other not so big frustrating life issues. In short then I am not in my top performance, my PL sucks... and it sucks big! Here are an example of two trading weeks in August, where one week suffers from "not top performance"

 I like to compare this with other high performance things. Like driving a sport car in a race. Can you expect to finish in the first place when you are disturbed, or not concentrated, or ill, or frustrated, or tired? I think no ...

Big loss from a thin air! These losses drives me crazy...
Was trading IRE racing market, entered pre race in the back side on the horse about 30 odd, exited most of the stake before off, and remaining in the inplay abut 30s from the start.  Made few bucks. Closed position and made sure there is no stakes left in the ladder and everything is green like always. After 10 minutes I noticed that I am missing 300eu ! My pl shows that -300 too. So happened this :

Please note that there was a late non-runner in this race and as such any bets that were matched before the off of the race and before the non-runner was announced will have a reduction factor applied to the bet. Any bets that are matched after the off of the race do not have the reduction factor applied to them as the price reflects what is happening within the market and the race. These bets have been settled correctly on the account and unfortunately this has resulted in a loss on the bets you have placed.

That sucks! I hate this. So my entry was reduced by ~35% reduction factor and my exit was not, and that small remainder from a lay side on the horse ~30 odd won...  I even did not know about non runner in this race!

It happened for me like this not a first time then bf takes money for me not fair. Imagine this, entry: back bet, exit: very late lay bet, and that one for some reason I don't know was voided lay bet :) so I lost about ~150.

Or this one: was clicking on a ladder and made too much multiple clicks and my account went to MINUS somehow, so I was sitting there with about -20 euros in my balance before 1m left to the start and without possibility to exit my ~200euros back bet, and of course I lost it... Bf said its very rare event, but these kind of shit happens.


Conclusion
By the way, there is my PL in August and September, still it looks like going in the right direction, hovewer variance is too big and I need to work on that.

So that's it for today, good luck!

16 comments:

  1. Hey Zaijc,

    I always enjoyed reading your blog so it was nice surprise to see a long overdue update.

    Glad to see the BF trading is coming along, slow progress is real progress....we can all remember thinking we have "cracked it" after a big profit day only to give it and more back to the market!

    In regards to your FX: I think you are at the stage now where you should be testing, testing, testing! (I recommend Forextester but you can use MT4 with scripts I think - backtest to refine your strategy buy get a demo account and forward test as this is where it counts)

    Books are great but at some point I believe there is a diminishing return and vast array of slightly different trading methods/concepts/ideas can really cloud your judgement when you actually come to pulling the trigger.... "analysis paralysis" is another way to put it.

    Initially you need to narrow down what really interests you, refine it, make it your own then you can always add different ideas from other traders when you are fully comfortable with your own trading.

    I would also question your money/risk management system when you were last trading FX - trading a small accounts is difficult but I think your pip value was too high for your account size and this probably contributed negatively to your emotions.

    Check out some information on drawdowns, risk of ruin and asymmetrical leverage etc.

    ...and finally, I highly recommend reading the first couple 100 pages of this (if you havent already) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331 - The J16 stuff is basically just price action/order flow at S/R, but his charts really helped me to understand where/why price was going.

    I hope you don't mind the long post, come back to me with any questions if I haven't explained very well or if you want to discuss anything in more detail. Also, this is all just my opinion...there are 100's of ways to make it, you don't have to do it like anyone else.

    PS - My schedule is FX in the AM and BF in the PM, but I trade longer time frames (4h, 1d) and I am ultra picky with my trades so it normally only takes a couple of hours to go through charts, set up/manage trades etc.....leaving plenty of energy for the crazy BF markets.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi GolfingGolfer,

      Thanks for helpful reply. Lots of good stuff you wrote here. I agree with you that I need to start testing all the things I have read about, and I will do that with time.

      I believe there is somewhere book which will change my life :) and I am always open to new information, maybe this info or that book will add the last missing part and my subconscious mind will put everything together and I will become super trader :D .. or maybe more realistically I will find one approach/method what I will like the most and I will stick to it.

      When I last time traded FX I used 2% risk model and stopped trading then my balance dropped to a certain amount. I stopped because I had too much pressure to make money for a living and was getting too emotional, so I returned back to BF where I knew how to make some money.

      I will take a good look to that HUGE thread in forexfactory, thanks for sharing.

      I am very happy that there are some people ready to help, thanks again. I need to re-think lots of things about my trading style and my edges, about being patient and being picky, and of course about money/risk management THAT one is very important.

      Good luck

      Delete
  2. Hi. Zajc, i've seen you posted Quantsports link in your videos, this tool is a vital part in my BFtrading. Unfortunately, my PC with all trading stuff crushed, and seems that quantsports close all downloads. Do you have installation file of quantsports? I'll be happy if you share it for me. Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi, sorry to hear about your PC. I don't have installation file too, at the time I am not using quantsports. I think for me is enough bf and Toy's charts. Try to contact them via email support@quantsports.co.uk

      Good lucl

      Delete
  3. Really interesting Blog Zaijc. I'm interested to see how you have progressed since your last update.

    Cheers - Dave.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Dave,

      Today is the first day then I am trading/scalping eur/usd with real money, at the time I up 2% with 2% risk, so I earned 1 risk/reward already :) what would be awesome to make average in all days. After last post I stopped trading in betfair and concentrated only in forex, was putting all technical info together, and of course was testing a lot in historical data, then looked for some forex video material, then traded for two weeks with demo account, and results looked great, so decided to go real with not so big big starting account :) Well gonna write more detailed post maybe in the weekend with some pics,results and thoughts. But I can say at the time I am feeling very confident about my trading.

      Have a nice day :)

      Delete
  4. Привет Литва! так ты совсем забросил лошадок?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hey Andrey, I am bad with Russian language, hardly can understand it but I know how to read :) Yes, at the time I am not trading in the betfair. Concentrating only in forex scalping. However at the time I am not trading life with real money it too. I stopped after two weeks ... It's so boring and predictable that my performance and results reversed from unbelievable demo trading results with only few losses and maybe ten times more wins to the loosing side ... So I took some holidays to refresh my mind, read some trading psychology stuff, make some more research and I will try again :)

    ReplyDelete
  6. мне известно что ты хорошо практиковал quantsports и NinjaTrader. В чём дело? почему больше не играешь на скачках?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi, please write English,

      *premium charges, 60% in the future??
      *ping problems
      *liquidity problems
      *all evenings and weekends trading time? Want to be with my family in this time...
      *winter hunger with markets

      hmm, probably can think a lot more if I wanted. fx is not easier, but horse trading is very stressful too. So I get bigger playing ground, better work hours, a lot bigger perspective in the future. I can't do both for full time so it came time to choose one.

      Delete
  7. I have an adjusting QuantSports file.
    I can't establish it.
    message:
    you dont seem to have registered your batfair account to the softwear, you need to activate your registratin using the URL we sent to your email. please do this then TR to login in again
    prompt what to do?

    ReplyDelete
  8. Try to write to the support of QuantSports support@quantsports.co.uk if they still working. If if you need to register somewhere in betfair sites that you are using Quanstports.

    Well it's very good thing to analyze saved charts made with QuantSports data and Ninja trader, think of new strategies, test them, see how prices moves, and how much time ladder action is not providing any useful directional info at all. However at the time for me was fully enough betfair's and Geeks Toy's most recent matched charts in the left of ladders(see my setup), probably it would be nice to have market overview chart too. With quants was lots of clicking saving importing exporting delaying... Don't buy into using lots of indicators, price is a king, and if you use some, make sure they add power to your strategies. Because to much indicators will gonna poison your decision making, they always is contradicting.

    Good luck

    ReplyDelete
  9. Dear!
    thanks for councils! ! !
    it is possible to take in the future from you consultations?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Well, I am not trading expert or market wizard. I am struggling with my own trading problems, and I still cant say I am consistently profitable. I suggest to read market structure/price action/trading psychology books mentioned in this blog. And of course get some experience in real trading. Prepare yourself for a long journey, no easy money here.

    ReplyDelete
  11. The main thing - thank you for dialogue!
    I took everything from your posts that was possible, and maybe it is more, but, unfortunately, on my feelings of it it isn't enough to consider that I am theoretically ready to a practical skalping on horses. I will float further in boundless open spaces not that in search of truth...
    once again thanks also give you eggs of all that will wish! ! !

    ReplyDelete
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